It is a time of freedom and fear, of Gaia and of borders, of many paths and the widening of a universal toll road, emptying country and swelling cities, of the public bought into privacy and the privacy of the public sold into invisible data banks and knowing algorithms. It is the time of the warrior's peace and the miser's charity, when the planting of a seed is an act of conscientious objection.

These are the times when maps fade and direction is lost. Forwards is backwards now, so we glance sideways at the strange lands through which we are all passing, knowing for certain only that our destination has disappeared. We are unready to meet these times, but we proceed nonetheless, adapting as we wander, reshaping the Earth with every tread.

Behind us we have left the old times, the standard times, the high times. Welcome to the irregular times.


 
A very recent ABC News Poll shows that among Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, Joseph Lieberman is the most likely vote-getter, followed in declining order by Howard Dean, John Kerry and Dick Gephardt. However, among the likely voters of the Democratic Party and Democrat-leaners, Howard Dean is the most likely vote-getter, followed in declining order by John Kerry, Joseph Lieberman and Dick Gephardt.

I can think of two interpretations of this result. One is that Howard Dean has generated enthusiasm from the set of individuals who were already likely voters, while Joseph Lieberman has generated enthusiasm among those who aren't likely to vote. The other is that individuals who have been swept up in the enthusiasm of the Dean campaign have been strongly motivated to vote.

Which interpretation is right? Well, the numbers won't tell you. Rather, it's the questions asked that are key. How did ABC News determine who was a likely voter? If they did it by asking whether they'd voted in the previous election, the first interpretation makes sense. If they asked whether individuals planned to vote in the next election, the second interpretation becomes plausible.

The problem is that newspapers and TV news programs don't typically report this bit of information, so you have no way of figuring it out yourself. Even the ABC News website's "poll vault" doesn't contain this information. How frustrating.

Posted by Theodiclus Lock at 6:54 AM. # (permalink)  




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