Unity08 has a stated goal of registering 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008 to participate in the world’s supposed first-ever online secure national presidential nomination. That’s just 447 days from now.
Since Unity08 delegate signups began in January of 2007, delegates have been a subset of users, since people can sign up to be Unity08 users with privileges to post on a message board, but decline to become a registered delegate. On the other hand, all people who sign up to be delegates are also registered as users. Therefore, the number of registered delegates (not the number of registered “delegates and supporters,” a higher but conveniently untrackable number often cited by Unity08) must be lower than the number of registered users. Despite this, Unity08 is now claiming a new number of over 50,000 delegates — a number that does not match its own measurable performance.
On the evening of March 20, 2007, the first time I checked, the highest registered user number on Unity08 was 25,100.
On the morning of March 29, 2007, 8.5 days later and the highest registered user number was 27,409.
On the morning of April 4, 2007, 6 days later, the highest registered user number was 29,360.
On the morning of April 11, 2007, 7 days later, the highest registered user number was 30,301.
Let’s be generous in our assumptions and imagine that each new user is also a new delegate. With that kind assumption, dividing the differences in user numbers by the days elapsed gives us the rate of delegate recruitment over time:
From 3/20/07 to 3/29/07: 272 new delegates per day.
From 3/29/07 to 4/4/07: 325 new delegates a day.
From 4/4/07 to 4/11/07: 134 new delegates a day.
None of these rates of recruitment come even close to the level Unity08 needs in order to attain its goal of 10,000,000 delegates by convention time. In just one week, however, the delegate recruitment rate fell 59%. At the new rate of 134 delegates a day
At this rate, Unity08 will add 59,898 more delegates by its nominating date of July 1, 2008. Even if we incorrectly assume that every current Unity08 user account represents a delegate, adding at the very most 30,301 current delegates, Unity08 would only muster 90,199 delegates, a mere 0.9% of its declared goal of 10,000,000 nominating delegates.