Unity08 has a stated goal of registering 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008 to participate in the world’s supposed first-ever online secure national presidential nomination. That’s just one year, one month and one day (397 days in all) from today.
Unity08 has two classes of participants, members (who have the privilege of posting on the Unity08 message boards) and delegates (who get to vote in the presidential nomination next year). Every delegate is also a member, but not every member is a delegate. This means that the number of registered members provides the upper limit of the number of delegates registered to vote in the online election next July. By tracking changes in the registration of members, and making the generous assumption that every new member is also a new delegate, we can see how close or how far Unity08 is from reaching its stated goal of 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008.
As of this morning, May 31 2007, the highest registered member number is 40,067. That’s just four tenths of one percent of the way to Unity08’s goal.
By looking at the rate of delegate recruitment — the number of new delegates per day, we can see whether Unity08 is recruiting delegates fast enough to reach its ten million delegate goal by next July. The graph below shows Unity08’s daily delegate recruitment rate from March until now (if, again, we make the generous assumption that each new member is also signed up to be a delegate):
Before May 21, I had been taking measurements about once a week. Since then, I’ve been taking daily measurements, resulting in the appearance of greater fluctuation during that time. Between this time yesterday and this time today, Unity08 added 84 new delegates. Over the past ten days, Unity08’s delegate recruitment rate averaged out to 124 delegates per day.
If this rate of 124 delegates per day is maintained over the remaining 397 days Unity08 has to reach its goal, Unity08 will obtain at the very most 89,295 delegates — 9 tenths of one percent of its recruitment goal of 10,000,000 delegates — by July 1, 2008.
In order for Unity08 to actually reach its goal of recruiting 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008, its recruitment rate will have to change by a large amount — a very large amount. In order to succeed, Unity 08 will need to recruit 25,088 delegates each and every day starting today. And for every day that Unity08 fails to reach that recruitment rate, its needed recruitment rate in the time remaining will rise ever more. Unity08’s needed recruitment rate is already 1,000 delegates per day higher than it was just two weeks ago.
The arranged appearances by Sam Waterston on TV aren’t doing the trick. Something else will have to come along if Unity08 doesn’t want to bite reality’s dust.