Unity08, the leaders of which haven’t posted to their own blog for 20 days, is moving forward with a pronounced limp. The registered corporation has a stated goal of registering 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008 to participate in what it claims will be the world’s first-ever online secure national presidential nomination. That’s just 390 days from today. How far away is Unity08 from the pace of delegate recruitment it needs to meet that goal?
To answer that question, let’s look at the structure of Unity08′s corporate recruitment system. Unity08 has two classes of participants, members (who have the privilege of posting on the Unity08 message boards) and delegates (who get to vote in the presidential nomination next year). Every delegate is also a member, but not every member is a delegate. This means that the number of registered members provides the upper limit of the number of delegates registered to vote in the online election next July. By tracking changes in the registration of members, and making the generous assumption that every new member is also a new delegate, we can see how close or how far Unity08 is from reaching its stated goal of 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008.
As of this morning, June 7 2007, the highest registered member number is 40,875. That’s just four tenths of one percent of the way to Unity08′s goal.
By looking at the rate of delegate recruitment — the number of new delegates per day, we can see whether Unity08 is recruiting delegates fast enough to reach its ten million delegate goal by next July. The graph below shows Unity08′s daily delegate recruitment rate from March until now (if, again, we make the generous assumption that each new member is also signed up to be a delegate):
Before May 21, I had been taking measurements about once a week. Since then, I’ve been taking daily measurements, resulting in the appearance of greater fluctuation during that time. Between this time yesterday and this time today, Unity08 added 63 new delegates. Over the past ten days, Unity08′s delegate recruitment rate averaged out to 106 delegates per day.
If this rate of 106 delegates per day is maintained over the remaining 390 days Unity08 has to reach its goal, Unity08 will obtain at the very most 82,215 delegates — 8 tenths of one percent of its recruitment goal of 10,000,000 delegates — by July 1, 2008.
In order for Unity08 to actually reach its goal of recruiting 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008, its recruitment rate will have to change by a large amount — a very large amount. In order to succeed, Unity 08 will need to recruit 25,430 delegates each and every day starting today. That needed recruitment rate is 342 delegates per day higher than it was just a week ago.
In short, Unity08 is on a consistent path to an abysmal failure in meeting its stated goal of recruiting 10,000,000 delegates by July 1 of 2008.