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Unity Limps On, Recruiting 106 Delegates a Day

Unity08, the leaders of which haven’t posted to their own blog for 20 days, is moving forward with a pronounced limp. The registered corporation has a stated goal of registering 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008 to participate in what it claims will be the world’s first-ever online secure national presidential nomination. That’s just 390 days from today. How far away is Unity08 from the pace of delegate recruitment it needs to meet that goal?

To answer that question, let’s look at the structure of Unity08′s corporate recruitment system. Unity08 has two classes of participants, members (who have the privilege of posting on the Unity08 message boards) and delegates (who get to vote in the presidential nomination next year). Every delegate is also a member, but not every member is a delegate. This means that the number of registered members provides the upper limit of the number of delegates registered to vote in the online election next July. By tracking changes in the registration of members, and making the generous assumption that every new member is also a new delegate, we can see how close or how far Unity08 is from reaching its stated goal of 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008.

As of this morning, June 7 2007, the highest registered member number is 40,875. That’s just four tenths of one percent of the way to Unity08′s goal.

By looking at the rate of delegate recruitment — the number of new delegates per day, we can see whether Unity08 is recruiting delegates fast enough to reach its ten million delegate goal by next July. The graph below shows Unity08′s daily delegate recruitment rate from March until now (if, again, we make the generous assumption that each new member is also signed up to be a delegate):

Unity08 Rate of Recruitment through June 7, 2007

Before May 21, I had been taking measurements about once a week. Since then, I’ve been taking daily measurements, resulting in the appearance of greater fluctuation during that time. Between this time yesterday and this time today, Unity08 added 63 new delegates. Over the past ten days, Unity08′s delegate recruitment rate averaged out to 106 delegates per day.

If this rate of 106 delegates per day is maintained over the remaining 390 days Unity08 has to reach its goal, Unity08 will obtain at the very most 82,215 delegates — 8 tenths of one percent of its recruitment goal of 10,000,000 delegates — by July 1, 2008.

In order for Unity08 to actually reach its goal of recruiting 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008, its recruitment rate will have to change by a large amount — a very large amount. In order to succeed, Unity 08 will need to recruit 25,430 delegates each and every day starting today. That needed recruitment rate is 342 delegates per day higher than it was just a week ago.

In short, Unity08 is on a consistent path to an abysmal failure in meeting its stated goal of recruiting 10,000,000 delegates by July 1 of 2008.

5 comments to Unity Limps On, Recruiting 106 Delegates a Day

  • ConcernedAboutUnity08

    I’m confused, Jim. You included two different number where I think you meant to type one. Please clarify this statement: “In order to succeed, Unity 08 will need to recruit 25,430 25,088 delegates each and every day starting today

    I also do not understand this: “That needed recruitment rate is 342 delegates per day higher than it was just a week ago.” The recruitment rate does not even reach 500 delegates per day on your chart.

  • Jim

    Whoops! The “25,430 25,088 delegates” is a typo. It should now read “25,430 delegates”, as in “In order to succeed, Unity 08 will need to recruit 25,430 delegates each and every day starting today.”

    That figure for what Unity08 needs, starting today, to reach its recruitment goal — 25,430 new delegates a day — is 342 delegates per day higher than what Unity08 needed to achieve each and every day starting last week (25,088 figure).

    In other words, if Unity08 had started a week ago to recruit 25,088 delegates a day, it would have reached its 10,000,000 delegate mark by July 1, 2008. But it didn’t, and the number of days left to reach the goal decreased by 7 days over the past week. So now the pace Unity08 needs to reach is higher — 25,430 new delegates a day. Of course, Unity08 won’t make it to that pace this week, which means that next week its needed pace of delegate recruitment will shoot even higher.

    Does that make more sense to you? Thanks for pointing out the typo.

  • ConcernedAboutUnity08

    Thanks for correcting the typo promptly and clarifying the “342 delegated per day higher” statistic.

    When I first read your post I just skipped right over the “needed” in “needed recruitment rate”. I appreciate your explaining it further, as I now see where you are coming from (and it really was obvious from your initial post, so I apologize for taking your time).

    You get Unity08’s emails, right? They recently sent some promoting the new “10 Minute Tuesdays”. I just want to make sure you’re still monitoring the organization closely.

  • Jim

    Yep. I was freaked out, to tell you the truth, by the latest e-mail, the subject line of which read “Jim, it’s time to have ‘The Talk.’” I thought they were going to use their fancy lawyers to sue me or some crap like that. But no, it was an automatically generated e-mail asking me to talk to other people about Unity08 and try to get them to join. Finally Unity08 is trying to actually use its small member base. But it doesn’t seem to be paying off. Maybe that’s because it’s hard to figure out what people would say in “The Talk” with their friends.

    “Yeah, if you’re tired of the Republicans and Democrats, join Unity08. They’ll have one of each!”

    “So, there’s this new third party out there, and it’s…. Um, no, they don’t have a platform, but…”

    “Unity08 will, see, get rid of the bad things and replace them with good things!”

    “See, instead of fighting all the time about our disagreements, we’ll sublimate it into sexual tension, right?”

    “Look, stop arguing with me on this, OK, and just Unite and shit, all right?!”

  • Anonymous

    Oooh, found mine in the bulk folder. Their email campaign looks suspiciously like the plagiarized letter to the editor campaign on the GOP site. And if they can’t get people to give them their email addresses, they get some true believers to give out someone else’s email address which will fill up with U08 spam. In the meantime I bet those new email addresses will be padding the mailing lists and the delegate lists. It’s like the old headhunter routine. You get someone to give some references then you contact the references to see if they can be persuaded to go job-hunting.

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