Unity08, which aims to elect its own presidential and vice presidential candidates on a policy platform unidentified at this time and into the future, has a stated goal of registering 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008 to participate in what it claims will be the worldâ€™s first-ever online secure national presidential nomination. Thatâ€™s just 375 days from today. How far away is Unity08 from the pace of delegate recruitment it needs to meet that goal?
To answer that question, all you have to do is look at the structure of Unity08â€™s corporate recruitment system. Unity08 has two classes of participants, members (who have the privilege of posting on the Unity08 message boards) and delegates (who get to vote in the presidential nomination next year). Every delegate is also a member, but not every member is a delegate. This means that the number of registered members provides the upper limit of the number of delegates registered to vote in the online election next July. By tracking changes in the registration of members, and making the inaccurate assumption (generously in Unity08’s favor) that every new member is also a new delegate, we can see how close or how far Unity08 is from reaching its stated goal of 10,000,000 delegates by July 1, 2008.
As of this morning, June 22 2007, the highest registered member number is 41,769. Thatâ€™s just four tenths of one percent of the way to Unity08â€™s goal.
By looking at the rate of delegate recruitment â€” the number of new delegates per day, we can see whether Unity08 is recruiting delegates fast enough to reach its ten million delegate goal by next July. The graph below shows Unity08â€™s daily delegate recruitment rate from March until now (if, again, we make the generously inaccurate assumption that each new member is also signed up to be a delegate):
Before May 21, I had been taking measurements about once a week. Since then, Iâ€™ve been taking daily measurements, resulting in the appearance of greater fluctuation during that time. Over the past seven days, Unity08â€™s delegate recruitment rate averaged out to just 70 delegates per day.
If this rate of 70 delegates per day is maintained over the remaining 375 days Unity08 has to reach its goal, Unity08 will obtain at the very most 68,019 delegates by July 1, 2008 â€” just under 7 tenths of one percent of its recruitment goal of 10,000,000 delegates. With such numbers, 2 hundredths of one percent of the U.S. population would be voting nominating Unity08â€™s presidential and vice presidential candidates for the whole nation. Thatâ€™s hardly a robust democratic process.
In order for Unity08 to actually reach its goal of recruiting 10 million delegates by July 1, 2008, its recruitment rate will have to change by a large amount â€” a very large amount. In order to succeed, Unity08.com will need to recruit 26,555 delegates each and every day starting today, a rate which is 379 times as fast as the actual rate of this past week. And every week that Unity08 doesnâ€™t attain its recruitment needs, its needed recruitment rate grows even larger. The recruitment rate Unity08 needs to reach now is 485 delegates per day higher than it was just a week ago.