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Tracking Stats for the 2008 Democratic Race, 8-12 to 8-18-2007

Since November of 2004, we have been tracking the number of bumper stickers, magnets, campaign buttons and shirts that we sell in support for each of the Democratic candidates in the 2008 presidential race. While polls measure opinions of the moment, our measure tracks a more strong and lasting and lasting commitment to show their support for a particular candidate in a public way. That kind of strong commitment turns into donations, and later turns into votes. The following is the percent share of sales of our Election 2008 gear in the past week of August 12-18 2007 for each candidate who garnered at least a 1% share of sales:

Dennis Kucinich: 32.0%
Hillary Clinton: 26.3%
John Edwards: 16.7%
Barack Obama: 13.2%
Joseph Biden: 4.6%
Al Gore: 3.9%
Bill Richardson: 1.8%
Christopher Dodd: less than 1 percent
Mike Gravel: less than 1 percent

Dennis Kucinich is — egad! — in first place for grabbing almost a third of the share of sales this past week, with Hillary Clinton six percentage points behind. This is not a fluke, but the culmination of a six-week trend of a gradual increase in Kucinich’s share. This is really, really interesting to me, especially because it doesn’t match the national polls of potential voters. The information we get here measures an act of commitment — spending money for a message to be displayed in public. Perhaps the people who are supporting Dennis Kucinich right now are feeling more committed, despite the fact that they are in smaller numbers in the population. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kucinich’s rise in share had something to do with Al Gore’s dropoff in share (and to a smaller extent the dropoff of Mike Gravel’s share). Is Dennis Kucinich going to be the candidate of dissident Democratic outrage in 2008?

Look for another update next week.

3 comments to Tracking Stats for the 2008 Democratic Race, 8-12 to 8-18-2007

  • Vynce

    I notice, too, that Obamamania has fallen to fourth place, which does, unfortunately, seem to match up to a loss of momentum in public polling, perhaps reflecting a loss of momentum on the national stage. Will the power he had, and the interest Kucinich generates combine with the Hardcore Gores to give a distinctly progressive slant to this cycle’s democratic party? somehow i doubt it.

    Still, a week is a long time, so we have 64 long times left before anything gets set in stone.

  • Susan

    Vynce said:

    “I notice, too, that Obamamania has fallen to fourth place, which does, unfortunately, seem to match up to a loss of momentum in public polling, perhaps reflecting a loss of momentum on the national stage. Will the power he had, and the interest Kucinich generates combine with the Hardcore Gores to give a distinctly progressive slant to this cycle’s democratic party? somehow i doubt it”‘.

    I must disagree with the latter part of your comment. I don’t think any “combining” will take place because Obama and Gore are very different politically and ideologically than Dennis Kucinich. What I do believe will happen is that people will start rethinking their choice and join Dennis’ campaign in a similar fashion to 2004 when people left the Dean campaign and decided to support Dennis.

    As long as Dennis continues to build momentum and support, he is perfectly capable of winning the election on his own merits, without any help from CFR members Obama and Gore.

    With Respects,

    Susan
    VoteKUCINICH 2008!
    http://www.dennis4president.com/home

  • Fruktata

    Uh, only that’s not what happened in 2004, Susan. They left the Dean campaign and decided to support a whole bunch of other candidates, mostly NOT Kucinich, who didn’t really perform very well.

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