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Bumper Sticker Straw Poll, 12-9 to 12-15: Obama Takes the Lead

Eighteen days from today, voting in the presidential campaign of 2008 will commence with the Iowa caucuses of January 3, 2008. Most of the other votes will take place in the month or so after that. And just like that, we’ll have our national choices set out for us. As the dates for actual votes come closer, let’s look again at the choices of people willing to put their money where their mouths are.

As voting comes closer for Iowa, New Hampshire, and a large load of other states, we’re keeping track of committed support indicated by sales of Election 2008 bumper stickers, magnets, campaign buttons, t-shirts and now lawn signs that we sell in support for each of the Democratic candidates in the 2008 presidential race. While polls measure fickle opinions, our measure tracks the stronger commitment marked by the laying down of cash to promote a candidate in public. The more strongly committed are more likely to caucus and to vote. The following is the percent share of sales of our Election 2008 gear in the past week of December 9 – December 15, 2007:

Barack Obama: 31.4%
Hillary Clinton: 28.5%
Dennis Kucinich: 11.5%
Joseph Biden: 8.1%
Al Gore: 5.7%
John Edwards: 5.5%
Bill Richardson: 4.0%
Mike Gravel: 1.4%
Chris Dodd: less than 1 percent

Barack Obama has taken the lead from Hillary Clinton. And as a look at the longitudinal trend shows, it’s been a neck-and-neck race between the two for the last couple of months. Hillary Clinton is down this week, but she’s been up most:

Dennis Kucinich and Joseph Biden trail behind Obama and Clinton in the second tier, as they have for some time. You might say that all they need is a little something to boost them, but other than the catasrophic, what would that be at this point? There aren’t even any more debates scheduled before voting begins in a bit more than two weeks.

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