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Osama Bin Laden and Other October Surprises Never Came

Back in 2004, there were a lot of conspiracy-minded progressives who were absolutely sure that George W. Bush had captured Osama Bin Laden, and was holding him until October, when his captivity would be announced, thus manipulating the presidential election. That Osama Bin Laden October surprise never happened. Nonetheless, many of the same people made the same prediction for the 2008 election. They said that Osama Bin Laden’s capture would be announced so as to deliver the election to McCain.

Even if Osama Bin Laden’s capture were to be announced today, it wouldn’t affect the election. There has been no, and will be no, Osama Bin Laden October surprise this year.

Likewise, there has been no new war with Iran, as many had predicted there would be. Remember all those reports of warships being sent to the Persian Gulf to prepare for the coming Iran war? Remember the reports that secret operatives were already in Iran to set the stage for an invasion?

These predictions tell us more about the value of predictions than they do about real political strategies for winning elections. They are similar in quality to the predictions of apocalyptic Christians that the world will end within a few months, and they ought to be treated with as about as much serious consideration.

One thought on “Osama Bin Laden and Other October Surprises Never Came”

  1. Luke says:

    Those reports of the extra Carrier group moving into the Gulf were true, and it is not a conspiracy theory to speculate about what may have been intended with moving them there. They seemed to have served their purpose without a war, and perhaps the speculation and paranoia helped make that war not come about. It did motivate people (myself included) to contact the President and other elected officials with my strong belief that a war with Iran should not occur.
    As for the special forces reported to be in Iran, I think most of those came from Seymour Hersch, and I am not sure if they were confirmed separately or not.

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