Back in 2004, there were a lot of conspiracy-minded progressives who were absolutely sure that George W. Bush had captured Osama Bin Laden, and was holding him until October, when his captivity would be announced, thus manipulating the presidential election. That Osama Bin Laden October surprise never happened. Nonetheless, many of the same people made the same prediction for the 2008 election. They said that Osama Bin Laden’s capture would be announced so as to deliver the election to McCain.
Even if Osama Bin Laden’s capture were to be announced today, it wouldn’t affect the election. There has been no, and will be no, Osama Bin Laden October surprise this year.
Likewise, there has been no new war with Iran, as many had predicted there would be. Remember all those reports of warships being sent to the Persian Gulf to prepare for the coming Iran war? Remember the reports that secret operatives were already in Iran to set the stage for an invasion?
These predictions tell us more about the value of predictions than they do about real political strategies for winning elections. They are similar in quality to the predictions of apocalyptic Christians that the world will end within a few months, and they ought to be treated with as about as much serious consideration.