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America Overrun by Muslims in 20 Years?

Last week the New York Times shared Diana Serafin’s justification for banning a mosque in Tennessee:

As a mother and a grandmother, I worry. I learned that in 20 years with the rate of the birth population, we will be overtaken by Islam, and their goal is to get people in Congress and the Supreme Court to see that Shariah is implemented. My children and grandchildren will have to live under that.

The newspaper didn’t share that according to two studies in 2008 (the American Religious Identification Survey and the U.S. Religious Landscape Survey), Muslims make up only 0.6% of the adult population of the United States. That’s approximately 1.8 million out of about 300 million Americans.

In order to get control of Congress and the Supreme Court, the United States will indeed have to “be overtaken by Islam,” with generously a majority and practically speaking a 60% supermajority in order to overturn the U.S. Constitution and implement Sharia law as Diana Serafin and her fellow anti-Islam protesters imagine. Diana Serafin says this will happen within the next 20 years, by 2030.

Is this at all a realistic expectation?

Right now, the annual population growth rate of the United States is 0.9%. The population growth rate of the world overall is 1.2%, and the population growth rate of the Islamic nation of Saudia Arabia is 2.0%. We could assume that American Muslims are like other Americans in their population growth rate, or like people in the world overall, or like their fellow Muslims in Saudia Arabia. But as the graph below shows, no matter which of these assumptions we make we end up with an American Muslim population in 2030 that is still a very, very small part of the overall American population:

Projected Growth in the American Muslim Population under three assumptions

Assuming that the U.S. population continues to grow along with the U.S. population of people who are Muslim, we shouldn’t see any earth-shattering change in the proportion of Muslims in the American population by 2030.

Actually, strike that: even if the U.S. population overall shrinks (which it has never done before) by the same amount that the American Muslim population grows, then the percentage of American Muslims will still be very, very small: in no numbers even remotely capable of taking over the Congress and the Supreme Court.

Even if you fall into some 1930s Germany-style propaganda mode regarding American Muslims and imagine them to be somehow reproducing like rats (or cockroaches, or whatever other offensive vermin reference you prefer) in basements and sewers across the nation, even if the American Muslim population grows by 20% each and every year while the population of the rest of the United States stays the same, even in that ridiculous scenario Muslims in America will only make up 25% of the U.S. population by 2030.

Conclusion: Diana Serafin and others who spout off about birth rates leading to an Islamic takeover of America are simply out of touch with reality.

In a country that respects fact, they’d have to come up with a new justification for banning religion. Is this a country that respects fact?

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