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Fact Check: Nonie Darwish and Enough Muslims to Elect a President in 20 Years?

In this morning’s e-mail, Irregular Times received the following message:

Joys of Muslim Women by Nonie Darwish…

In twenty years there will be enough Muslim voters in the U.S. and Canada to elect the President or Prime Minister by themselves! Rest assured they will do so… You can look at how they have taken over several towns in the USA and Canada, Dearborn Mich. is one, Brampton, Ontario is another and there are others…

I think everyone in the U.S. and Canada should be required to read this, but with the ACLU, there is no way this will be widely publicized, unless each of us sends it on!

Fact Checker: Fact Check 3000 Rumor Dissector and Truth Production Robot Unit Electronic GizmodifierTime to roll out the Fact Checker.

Claim: Nonie Darwish wrote this article, “The Joys of Muslim Women,” or any other piece of writing so titled.
Fact: Nonie Darwish has specifically denied this. The association of Nonie Darwish with this text is a hoax.

Claim: The ACLU is preventing the wide dissemination of the assertion I received by e-mail.
Fact: There is not any record of the ACLU agitating to restrict the dissemination of this text. It would not make sense for the ACLU to agitate to restrict dissemination of this text, since the ACLU is a major proponent of free speech, including freedom of speech for unpopular ideas across the political spectrum. As an empirical matter, a google search for the text “In twenty years there will be enough Muslim voters in the U.S. to elect the President by themselves” turns up 17,900 results, indicating a rather wide dissemination. It is nearly impossible to prove that a conspiracy does not exist, so I leave it to you to decide between the two possibilities: Either the ACLU is carrying on a stealthy, invisible and utterly ineffectual campaign to quash the story we received by e-mail this morning, or the ACLU is not trying to quash it at all.

Claim: “In twenty years there will be enough Muslim voters in the U.S. and Canada to elect the President or Prime Minister by themselves!”
Fact: This is a claim we looked at last September after someone used it as a justification of bans on mosque building:

As a mother and a grandmother, I worry. I learned that in 20 years with the rate of the birth population, we will be overtaken by Islam, and their goal is to get people in Congress and the Supreme Court to see that Shariah is implemented. My children and grandchildren will have to live under that.

The truth is that, according to the two most recent studies of religious populations in America, (the American Religious Identification Survey and the U.S. Religious Landscape Survey), Muslims make up only 0.6% of the adult population of the United States. That’s approximately 1.8 million out of about 300 million Americans.

Here’s a graph showing what we can expect the Muslim population of the United States to look like over the next twenty years if the American Muslim population follows the U.S. birth rate, the World birth rate, or the Saudi birth rate (three reasonable expectations):

Projected U.S. Muslim Population with varying birth rate assumptions, 2010-2030

The total U.S. population during the period will be somewhere in the range of 300-350 million. Clearly, unless a comet blasts into North America and Muslims put up their secret comet-debris-shields, there is no reasonable scenario under which the American Muslim population will come anywhere close to making up a majority in the next twenty years.

Conclusion: This article is once, twice, three times disconnected from reality.

8 thoughts on “Fact Check: Nonie Darwish and Enough Muslims to Elect a President in 20 Years?”

  1. Tom says:

    Projecting populations over the next 20 years is problematic due primarily to the bottleneck event the human species has just entered. One of two ways, both leading to the same result, will take us through this horrible scenario: Peak Oil (specifically, but Peak Everything in reality – since our population overshot the earth’s carrying capacity) and/or Climate change (caused by our dumping ridiculous amounts of CO2, and now methane too, via using fossil fuels into the atmosphere; and all the other toxic pollution we’ve dumped on our land and in the waters of the planet aren’t helping either). The Earth is chemically imbalanced now and it will take thousands of years to recover.

  2. Jim Cook says:

    Update: The Pew Forum has released a demographic study concluding that at most Muslims will make up 1.8% of the U.S. population in 20 years. This is far, far below the level required to elect a president.

  3. Christopher Popham Smith says:

    We are thinking that for the past 35 years, due to lax immigration laws and political correctness, there are many places
    in Europe that are predominantly Muslim, mostly ghetto-like communities. The Muslim populations have exploded in Europe, and
    in a scant few years, they will indeed be in a position to vote into office their own kind at the local and state levels.
    In twenty years, as the Muslim population of the U.S. grows, we too will be seeing Islamists elected to office more frequently.
    After all, there is a Muslim Congressman, and an appointee in the White House right now.
    Be very careful America. The European Muslim phenomenon will be here soon enough for your children and grandchildren to witness.

    1. Bcherr says:

      Isn’t the mayor of London a Muslim?

  4. Nic says:

    The comment isn’t limited to just births, you also need to consider immigration. Can we get an analysis of that too?

  5. Ed says:

    Has anyone seen the person occupying the White House? You know the guy who used to be Barry Soetoro when he was a student in Indonesia at a time when U.S. citizens were not allowed. That would give more credence to him being a Muslim than a U.S. citizen. It appears that Cook is cooking the books. Even now Nonie Darwish is backing off of her previous belief that Obama wasn’t a Muslim, only a Socialist in her column: Obama’s Taqqiya Unravels: Taqqiya & Kitman are Islamic means of lying to infidels. Obama’s a master at lying, a pathological liar. He’s a far greater liar, if great is to be attributed to lying, than being President. No lie he’s failed miserably.

    1. Anonymous says:

      You are nuts

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