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In Arizona, Americans Elect Party Registrations Heaviest in Republican Areas

Is Americans Elect a political party? Despite its protests to the contrary, the answer is a hearty Yes Indeed. The latest proof of Americans Elect’s status as a political party comes from the state of Arizona, where the Secretary of State has released counts of registered Americans Elect political party members in Arizona counties, U.S. congressional districts, and state legislative districts. This is the first opportunity for Americans Elect political party members to be characterized using publicly available data. Because the state legislative districts offer the greatest geographic detail, let’s look at those.

Of the 30 state legislative districts:

3 have no Americans Elect party members
5 have 1 Americans Elect party member
5 have 2 Americans Elect party members
3 have 3 Americans Elect party members
3 have 4 Americans Elect party members
4 have 5 Americans Elect party members
6 have 6 Americans Elect party members
1 has 9 Americans Elect party members
1 has 10 Americans Elect party members

There are 111 Americans Elect political party members across the entire state of Arizona, and no one district has a large number of Americans Elect party members. But there is variation from district to district in the number of AE party members. Where is the party stronger and where weaker?

The following two charts show bivariate and multivariate best-fit regression lines, displaying the trend in Americans Elect membership across Arizona state legislative districts.

Number of Americans Elect Political Party Members in an Arizona state legislative district, by number of Republican state legislators elected in a district

There are two members of the Arizona House and one member of the Arizona Senate elected in each state legislative district. In a statistically significant relationship, it turns out that the more Republicans elected from a district, the more members of the Americans Elect party are registered in the district. All Arizona legislature members are either Republicans or Democrats, so the converse of this effect holds: in districts where there are more Democrats elected to the legislature, there are fewer Americans Elect party members.

Number of Americans Elect Party Members registered in a district, by the % of voters registered as Republicans (and controlling for the % of voters registered Independent of political party)

Consistently across districts in Arizona, there are actually more voters registered Independent than registered Republican or registered Democrat — this lets us assess whether Americans Elect is drawing support from particularly Independent areas or particularly Republican areas. The second graph you see above shows the trendline for the effect of % of voters registered Republican in a district. The % of voters registered Independent was also assessed in this regression, but the result was not statistically significant — that is, the impact of % Independent on Americans Elect party membership is not appreciably different from zero. The effect of % registered Republicans in a district on the number of Americans Elect party members in that district is statistically significant and positive. The more Republicans in a district, the more Americans Elect party members there are.

Because of (commendable) privacy laws, we can’t know whether the individual people who have signed up to be Americans Elect Party members in the state of Arizona are former Republicans, former Democrats or former Independents. But we do know, through two measures, that Americans Elect Party members come disproportionately from Republican districts.

As the year progresses, as Americans Elect registers as a political party in more states, and as reporting deadlines continue to come at us, we can expect to see more information about the context of Americans Elect party registration. Given Americans Elect’s refusal to disclose what it’s doing at the national level, I look forward to whatever state-level data the public can get its hands on.

9 comments to In Arizona, Americans Elect Party Registrations Heaviest in Republican Areas

  • Joshua

    Jim: Is this based on the January 1, 2012 voter registration report at http://www.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/Active_Voter_Count.pdf ? If so, did you take into account the fact that some of the districts have much higher numbers of registered voters than other districts?

    Whether due to the need for redistricting since the 2000 Census, or due to some districts having larger populations of noncitizens, or other factors, the discrepancies in the number of registered voters seem much more significant than the number of AE registrants per district.

    • Joshua,

      The short answer is yes.

      The long answer is with only 30 cases you can’t include a large number of independent variables, but have checked these results by including population within each district as a control, and introducing that variable does not substantively change the results you see here.

  • There is no protest to the contrary. The organization Americans Elect is not a political party, it’s a 501(c)4 Super PAC. In *some* states, the process through with they have to go through to get on the ballot creates a ballot qualified state party. The Americans Elect Party of Arizona, created on paper by ballot qualification efforts, does not change the legal status of the Americans Elect organization.

    The lengths to which you try to make issues out of nothing with Americans Elect is hilarious. A handful of us that pay attention to links about AE each day get a nice chuckle from most of your stuff on them. Some of it is good reporting though… it’s sad you taint it with bullshit like this.

    • It is a 501c4 corporation. It is also a political party. It is both, and Americans Elect is taking the advantages of both, and you might not think that’s worthy of notice, but I do. In both Arizona and Florida, it has obtained political party status with reference to a “national party,” and it has openly discussed plans for (see, for example, Elliot Ackerman’s recent 2014 comments, repeated by Americans Elect representatives at a recent volunteer training conference in California). “Political party” is written all over Americans Elect, in many places literally. You have a problem with this? Take it up with Americans Elect, which keeps making bald declarations that it is “not a political party.”

      Go ahead and chuckle if you like; that’s your right. Isn’t it lovely that we can all crack a smile? But keep in mind I’m not doing this to make you happy or because you find it interesting. I’m doing this because it makes me happy and I find it interesting.

      I’ll ask, Solomon, like I always do every time you come over here, that if you’re going to use words like “bullshit” that maybe you might want to point out some source that factually contradicts what I’m saying.

      You never manage to do that, and I guess I can’t make you do that, just like I can’t make you think like I think. Oh well, Solomon. Your choice. Free country. Have a nice day.

    • Happy you pointed that out Solomon!
      AEI is NOT a Party by any means… It is simply ballot access for Independents such as myself.

      This will come to a very heated argument as the 2014 Arizona Governor Race nears and these nutty people suddenly calling themselves the “Arizona hating, Americans elect PARTY” climb out of the woodwork.

      I am running for Governor under the AEI ballot and I would love for you to check out my INTERIM WEBSITE (updated asap with my free e-booklet attached, explaining IN DETAIL the plans we must follow to pull Arizona and hopefully the remainder of the Union out of the ditch.

      http://jlmealer.com

      JL Mealer

  • Do you realize that under Arizona election law for new parties, someone registered as an Americans Elect voter can file to run as a write-in candidate for any office — statewide (just US Senate and 2 corporation commission seats this year), US House, AZ Senate or House or any partisan county office — and if that person votes for herself, she will officially be the Americans Elect candidate for that office on the ballot in November?

    Do you think this has possibilities for mischief? (I love mischief.)

  • You might very well think that; I couldn’t possibly comment.

  • The Arizona Americans Elect Party is now actively seeking write-in candidates for our party’s fabulous primaries this August! Any Arizona voter who’s a party member can run as a write-in candidate (you can register from June 1-July 17, and we’ll help you), and if you get a plurality of the votes in your race, you’ve won the party’s nomination and will be listed on the November ballot along with Democratic, Republican, Libertarian and Green Party candidates. We are the cool new party in town and everyone is welcome!

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