Guess: When Was the Last Time that the Globe Had a Month Cooler than the 1951-1980 Average? What Are the Chances of That?
There Is No Global Warming, screams a NewsMax headline yesterday.
No Global Warming? Let’s play make-a-guess using NASA’s GISS temperature data dating from January 1880 to May 2015 to test that assertion.
To play the game, make a guess: how many months has it been since the globe had a monthly temperature reading cooler than the 1951-1980 average global temperature? Really, go ahead. Make a guess.
Now read on.
If there has been no global warming, as the NewsMax headline baldly asserts, then whether the globe is warmer or cooler than the 1951-1980 average since 1980 should be essentially a flip of the coin, with some months warmer, some months cooler, but no overall tendency for temperatures warmer than the 1980 average since 1980. If there has been no global warming, then the chance that any particular month is warmer than the 1951-1980 average should be 50% and the chance that any particular month is cooler than the 1951-1980 average should be 50% too.
Now here’s the answer, according to NASA’s GISS temperature data across the globe over land and sea. The last time that a month was cooler than the 1951-1980 average for that month was February 1994. That was 256 months ago. In every one of the 255 months since then, the global temperature has been warmer than the 1951-1980 average.
If global warming really did not exist, and whether a month was warmer or cooler than the 1951-1980 average was just a flip of the coin, then you’d randomly get that chain of 255 warmer than average months only 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000173% of the time (1/2 to the 255th power).
That’s how outrageous it is to say there has been no global warming.