Fact Check: Does Donald Trump Have Strong Minority Support?
One of the most important tasks of independent sources of information during a political campaign is to keep track of the simple accuracy of information, comparing the assertions people make in pursuit of election with the available facts. So, when John Simmons, one of the more frequent readers of Irregular Times came forward last night with the claim that, “You know the funny thing is that even the minority groups (even Muslim Americans!!) Are supporting Trump,” I thought it would be worth checking out.
If the very same minority groups that Donald Trump frequently insults support his presidential campaign nonetheless, it would suggest that Trump’s election is nearly certain, and that liberal concerns about Trump’s arrogant treatment of minority groups is not reflective of the concerns that most members of those groups have for themselves. If, on the other hand, John’s statement is inaccurate, it would reflect a striking discrepancy between political reality and the political perceptions of a fervent Trump supporter.
Here’s what I found:
– In a poll of registered Latino voters in battleground states, only 15 percent expressed support for Donald Trump.
– In August, although Donald Trump claimed to have the support of a majority of African-Americans, a Quinnipiac poll found that only 8 percent of African-American respondents indicated that Donald Trump cared about their concerns, and that only 3 percent of African-American respondents would vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. A November Public Policy Polling survey found that Donald Trump had just a 9 percent favorability rating among African-Americans.
– The same November Public Policy Polling survey found that, among Americans categorizing themselves as neither African-American, European-American, or Latino, only one out of every three of respondents rate Donald Trump favorably.
– There has been no poll of Muslim voters in the United States to determine the level of support of Muslim voters for Donald Trump, so it appears that John has simply fabricated his claim of Muslim support for Trump out of thin air. However, a 2011 poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 11 percent of American Muslims identify as Republicans, 70 percent identify as Democrats, and the rest as independents.
In short, there is absolutely no evidence that Donald Trump has strong support from any minority group in the United States. Ethnic minorities are strongly opposed to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. The Trump agenda of ethnic and religious and broad cultural hostility seems to have alienated almost everybody but heterosexual European-American Christian Republicans.
Update: Multiple exit poll results in South Carolina have been unable to find evidence that black support for Donald Trump in primary voting was statistically distinguishable from 0% in the Republican primary. Black Americans make up 27.8% of the South Carolina population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Update: Republican exit poll results in Nevada show that Donald Trump captured a smaller share of Latino Republicans than white Republicans in the Nevada GOP caucus. So few blacks caucusing for Donald Trump were found that the exit pollsters were unable to statistically distinguish between that low level of participation and 0%. Black Americans make up 9.1% of the Nevada population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Update: One possible objection to looking at exit poll results in this way is that in most states, people must vote in the caucus or primary for the party with which they’re registered. Of course, if Democrats hypothetically loved Donald Trump so much, they could switch their party registration to support his candidacy — but the bother of doing so might depress the effect. Click this link to review an article looking at results for multiple “open primary” states in which anyone can vote in either party’s primary. If Donald Trump’s claim that “The African Americans love me” were true, we’d expect to see a wave of African American voters for Trump in these “open primary” states. We don’t.