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Fact Check: Does Donald Trump Have Strong Minority Support?

One of the most important tasks of independent sources of information during a political campaign is to keep track of the simple accuracy of information, comparing the assertions people make in pursuit of election with the available facts. So, when John Simmons, one of the more frequent readers of Irregular Times came forward last night with the claim that, “You know the funny thing is that even the minority groups (even Muslim Americans!!) Are supporting Trump,” I thought it would be worth checking out.

If the very same minority groups that Donald Trump frequently insults support his presidential campaign nonetheless, it would suggest that Trump’s election is nearly certain, and that liberal concerns about Trump’s arrogant treatment of minority groups is not reflective of the concerns that most members of those groups have for themselves. If, on the other hand, John’s statement is inaccurate, it would reflect a striking discrepancy between political reality and the political perceptions of a fervent Trump supporter.

Here’s what I found:

– In a poll of registered Latino voters in battleground states, only 15 percent expressed support for Donald Trump.

– In August, although Donald Trump claimed to have the support of a majority of African-Americans, a Quinnipiac poll found that only 8 percent of African-American respondents indicated that Donald Trump cared about their concerns, and that only 3 percent of African-American respondents would vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. A November Public Policy Polling survey found that Donald Trump had just a 9 percent favorability rating among African-Americans.

anti-trump bumper sticker– The same November Public Policy Polling survey found that, among Americans categorizing themselves as neither African-American, European-American, or Latino, only one out of every three of respondents rate Donald Trump favorably.

– There has been no poll of Muslim voters in the United States to determine the level of support of Muslim voters for Donald Trump, so it appears that John has simply fabricated his claim of Muslim support for Trump out of thin air. However, a 2011 poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 11 percent of American Muslims identify as Republicans, 70 percent identify as Democrats, and the rest as independents.

In short, there is absolutely no evidence that Donald Trump has strong support from any minority group in the United States. Ethnic minorities are strongly opposed to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. The Trump agenda of ethnic and religious and broad cultural hostility seems to have alienated almost everybody but heterosexual European-American Christian Republicans.

Update: Multiple exit poll results in South Carolina have been unable to find evidence that black support for Donald Trump in primary voting was statistically distinguishable from 0% in the Republican primary.  Black Americans make up 27.8% of the South Carolina population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Update: Republican exit poll results in Nevada show that Donald Trump captured a smaller share of Latino Republicans than white Republicans in the Nevada GOP caucus.  So few blacks caucusing for Donald Trump were found that the exit pollsters were unable to statistically distinguish between that low level of participation and 0%.  Black Americans make up 9.1% of the Nevada population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Update: One possible objection to looking at exit poll results in this way is that in most states, people must vote in the caucus or primary for the party with which they’re registered.  Of course, if Democrats hypothetically loved Donald Trump so much, they could switch their party registration to support his candidacy — but the bother of doing so might depress the effect.  Click this link to review an article looking at results for multiple “open primary” states in which anyone can vote in either party’s primary.  If Donald Trump’s claim that “The African Americans love me” were true, we’d expect to see a wave of African American voters for Trump in these “open primary” states.  We don’t.

27 thoughts on “Fact Check: Does Donald Trump Have Strong Minority Support?”

  1. Marc Allan Feldman says:

    “Does Donald Trump Have Strong Minority Support?”

    Betteridge’s law of headlines is an adage that states: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.”

    1. J Clifford says:

      Funny, but I don’t think the creators of the following headline at Pakalert Press meant to suggest a negative: World War 3 = SYRIA War : USA + EU + Turkey VS. Russia + China + Iran?

      Neither do I think this headline from Before It’s News was meant to be answered in the negative: “Red Alert” DHS Is Going to Do Nationwide Raids In 2016 “Death Camp Round Up?”

      Can we create an exemption for conspiracy theorists?

      1. Marc Allan Feldman says:

        I think in both the cases you site the question “can be answered by the word no”

        1. AnoNymous says:

          I mean, if we’re being technical, any question *can be* answered by the word “no”, that has nothing to do with whether an answer of “no” is false.

  2. Mark says:

    You’re doing a “Fact Check”.
    You you really think Donald Trump and his supporters care about ‘facts’?

    1. J Clifford says:

      Those who do not care about facts are not my direct concern. Some of those who don’t care about facts will care about the general social acceptability of going along with Donald Trump’s attacks on equality and liberty. To reach those people, it’s important to establish clear, evidence-based critiques of Donald Trump’s claims, and the claims of his supporters.

      Also, when people like John Simmons make bold claims that are in plain contradiction to the truth, it’s important to identify the falsehoods, just to get it on the record.

    2. christey says:

      I dont think trumps supporters care about facts… And that’s the issue now

  3. Leroy says:

    Where is John Simmons’ factual response with cited evidence (aside from Tweets from Trump that are fabricated out of thin air)?

    Or is he like KD who believes that if Trump said it or wrote it down somewhere, then it’s the gospel truth? And that he’s telling the truth that it’s just the media and polls taking things out of context.

  4. Korky Day says:

    Thanks for the nod, Elder Leroy.

    Donald Trump never said he had a majority of support of any group. He doesn’t even have a majority of Republicans.

    What Trump does says is that he had ‘strong’ support of various groups. You can take that any way you want. I’d say it means maybe 1/3 or 1/4 the support of a racial minority that he allegedly insults. That would be strong support, as it partially refutes the claim that he has bashed them.

    Did Alabama Gov. George Wallace get 1/3 or 1/4 the Blacks on his side? Don’t be silly. Probably 1%, and all of those from mental hospitals.

    Trump appeals to the working class because they want jobs and better health insurance and peace and lower taxes and he convincingly promises those. More convincingly than any Republican or Democrat. (Sanders doesn’t count as a Democrat, as he steadfastly refused to associate with those criminals until this race. He is a democratic socialist and a working class hero.)

    Trump says in his speeches that some of his Muslim friends supports his temporary ban. The fact that ANY do is remarkable.
    No one ever claimed there was a poll of them on this. So Irregular Times is still knocking down straw people.

    The story above says, ‘In a poll of registered Latino voters in battleground states, only 15 percent expressed support for Donald Trump.’

    ‘Only’? What do you mean ‘only’, ‘J Clifford’?
    Probably 20% of them are Republicans and Trump has almost all of those! More than Cruz and Rubio, probably. We don’t know because the story (which I did read) has NO DATA on that. Pretty useless story. So it’s not that Latinos dislike Trump any more than any of the other Republicans, I strongly suspect.

    More from the story: ‘among Americans categorizing themselves as neither African-American, European-American, or Latino, only one out of every three of respondents rate Donald Trump favorably.’

    ‘Only’? What do you mean ‘only’, ‘J Clifford’? I’d say 1/3 is pretty damn good. That’s almost as well as he’s doing among Republicans alone!

    So, overall, your story, J Clifford, is full of holes.

    1. Misael says:

      Excellent comment.

    2. J Clifford says:

      No, Korky, that’s not as well as Trump is doing among Republicans. First of all, you’re purposefully ignoring this: “only 8 percent of African-American respondents indicated that Donald Trump cared about their concerns, and that only 3 percent of African-American respondents would vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.”

      Secondly, Trump is the top choice of a little under half of Republican voters. That’s NOT the same thing as having a favorable rating from a little under half of Republican voters.

      In fact, minority voters have a MORE unfavorable rating of Donald Trump than the population in general, which is in complete contradiction of what Donald Trump claims to be true.

      Donald Trump
      goes ———>
      The Truth
      <------------goes

      1. Korky Day says:

        You still don’t get my point, J Clifford, but maybe the readers do.

  5. Korky Day says:

    Small correction to my previous comment:
    Bernie Sanders has associated with Democrats all his life. I meant that he refused to associate with them as a member of the Democratic Party himself.

  6. Korky Day says:

    According to a Clout Research poll (if you can believe ANY poll!) Trump has 40% of Blacks, 45% of Hispanics, and 19% of Asians. (Maybe of Republicans only, that isn’t too clear in the report. Either way, it’s pretty shocking.)

    Blacks and Hispanics, in fact, support Trump more than whites.

    Of those who will be voting in the Republican primaries, Trump wins 29% of the men, 47% of the women.

    Trump has nearly 40% of the GOP, but also 31% of the independents and 26% of the Democrats.

    http://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/minorities-line-up-behind-donald-trump

  7. Korky Day says:

    Instead of refuting my comments above (which would be very difficult), it seems that Irregular Times instead has posted a new, almost identical story by a different author.

    It is called
    ‘Are “The Minority Groups Supporting Donald Trump?” Fact Check.
    January 3, 2016 · by Jim Cook · in Politics, Republicans, Election 2016’.

    It is no more reasonable than this article, so I will avoid repeating all my comments at the end of each of them.

    1. Jim Cook says:

      Don’t pat yourself on the back about a Clout poll.

      The Clout polling group is not a dispassionate polling firm, but rather hires itself out to clients to produce findings. Its client is WorldNetDaily, the rabidly unreal right-wing website that declared Barack Obama to be born in Kenya and Ebola to be spread through sneezes. I wouldn’t trust that Clout poll farther than I can spit.

  8. Gonefishing says:

    Cant Stop The Trump
    Fire the medias, they let the sheep out
    which one got loose?
    It was the Americans, and Trump took them all, lmao
    Why, is too many years of lies by leaders and bias medias
    Now, Trump proposely fires, mostly unPC, or not exact
    Leaders and medias go nuts and fuel the fire, so Trump emerges up
    Comes from years, Bushwacked and Democracked
    Bernie and Trump are products of promises and lies
    Trump 2016 in all flavors
    why, you all spent way too much time with PC and words
    might be different, if promises came true, but when they win, all that money is insisted payback by donors, we are forgotten
    You all spend way too much time deviding us, to keep us busy
    So, Trump reverses it and you all stay busy why we vote

  9. christey says:

    Donald trump does not care for minorities. He doesn’t understand what it take to become president. Donald trump is a hypocrite and all he cares about is the money he has and the upper class everyone else spent matter to him. Every.time he speaks he never talks about the real issues our country has and he continues to act out in such a ignorant way twitting about nothing I dont no one president that was more raped up I social media than actually making a difference in our country.Even with all that money he has he still wont make a difference in society today because he only cares about him and his money.

    1. David Cruz says:

      I don’t even believe your a real person christey. I think this is a post by the sneaky campaigners. It’s clearly written in improper English to make it seem like someone from the hood. If people only knew that this is the type of games the Democratic Party plays in order to appeal to minorities!!! They really think we are that stupid!!! I guess the Democratic Party thinks everybody be saying like dis. What an insult. Like saying minorities are not as capable of showing ID’s to vote so it would be discriminatory to require ID to vote!! Trump2016

  10. Korky Day says:

    Christey, I think he would have made more money by staying out of politics and continuing to focus on his businesses.

  11. Korky Day says:

    ‘Donald Trump won among Hispanic voters in Nevada, according to entrance polls released from Tuesday night’s caucuses, fulfilling an oft-repeated campaign pledge. The GOP presidential front-runner, who coasted to an easy victory in the Silver State, won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, according to MSNBC’s entrance polls, topping Marco Rubio’s 29 percent and Ted Cruz’s 18 percent. Both Rubio and Cruz are Cuban-American.’
    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/270547-entrance-poll-trump-wins-with-nevada-hispanics

    Those polls partially refute shallow claims that Trump is racist or anti-immigrant.
    Let’s have some deeper insights into the Trump Phenomenon in Irregular Times, as I’m seeing in mainstream and alternative paper magazines.
    Trump is a complicated, intelligent guy. He’s not my favourite candidate for president this year, but certainly my favourite Republican candidate of all time. He’s similar to Andrew Jackson and Theodore Roosevelt.

    1. Leroy says:

      Trump won 44% of the REPUBLICAN HISPANIC vote.

      This was a PRIMARY election (actually a caucus). So he won LESS than a majority of the Hispanic voters who are Republican.

      Quote:

      More than 194,000 registered Latino voters are expected to participate in the upcoming Nevada caucus.

      Based on analysis from the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO) Education Fund, the Latino voter turnout in Nevada is expected to increase again. Compared to 72,000 Latino voters in 2004 and 157,000 voters in 2012, the 2016 election season could see more than 194,000 Latino voters engaged in politics.

      In regards to political party affiliation, the Republican Party might need to boost its ground-roots efforts. According to NALEO, 55 percent of Latinos identified as Democrat, significantly higher than 17 percent as Republican and 28 percent as Independent or “Other”
      END

      My, my.

      Like most Canuck statisticians, figures can lie while liars figure.

      Only SEVENTEEN PERCENT of registered Nevada Hispanics are Republican.

      Only SEVENTEEN PERCENT!!!!!

      FIFTY-FIVE PERCENT are registered Democrats!

      Maybe stick with Canadian politics and getting the nude beach ready, eh?.

      1. Korky Day says:

        Thanks for your quick response, Leroy.
        Maybe a little too quick.
        None of what you just wrote contradicts anything I’ve written. And most of what you’ve written, I wrote earlier in this thread.
        We Canadians are pretty sharp.

        1. Korky Day says:

          I forgot to say, Leroy, that Donald Trump handily WON the Nevada Republican caucus, in case you didn’t notice that titbit in your avalanche of facts.

          He is going down in my esteem, though, with his recent stupid comments about Guantanamo.
          But he’s still the only Republican with any charisma.

  12. Korky Day says:

    Interesting views of African-Americans on the street:

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