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Voting Liberally in 2016: Map Shows Where To Vote For Jill Stein, Where To Vote For Clinton

UPDATE: The polls indicate a tightened race, so please, don’t follow the map you see here. Instead, use the new map indicating this shift.

You’ve heard the categorical condemnations liberal activists are hurling at each other this year: “A vote for Jill Stein is a vote for Donald Trump!” “A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for corporate oligarchy!” “If you vote Green Party, you’re throwing your vote away!” “A vote for Clinton is a waste!”

The flaw with all such statements is that they’re categorical, speaking to all Americans, declaring simple strategic truths that apply to everyone everywhere. That’s not how presidential elections actually work in the United States.

A presidential election chooses a candidate for a national office, but it is not a national election. Presidential elections take place at the state level. On Election Day, voters choose delegates to go to the Electoral College, who then elect the next President.

Intelligent political strategists therefore think state-by-state. Intelligent political activists do too.

What all liberals ought to be able to agree upon is that electing Donald Trump as President would be a disaster for our country. However, many liberals are also deeply concerned about what Hillary Clinton will do with the power of the White House.

The vital strategic question for American liberals in 2016 is how to use their votes most effectively to advocate for more liberal policies, whether through negative action that prevents the anti-liberal Donald Trump from gaining the White House, or positively, by showing support for the most liberal candidate, Jill Stein. Hillary Clinton is in the middle as a corporate establishment candidate, neither liberal nor strongly anti-liberal.

In the abstract national election, it can seem like a confusing choice for liberals. Do they vote for the candidate who best supports their values, or vote for the candidate who best prevents the election of the candidate who is in profound opposition to their values?

Considered state by state, the choice becomes much more clear. In some states, Donald Trump could actually win some Electoral College votes. In other states, there’s no chance in hell that Donald Trump will win any Electoral College vote.

If you’re a liberal living in a state where Hillary Clinton has a large lead over Donald Trump, the most effective use of your vote is to support the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein. In the map below, these states are colored green. They are: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

On the other hand, if you’re a liberal living in a state where Donald Trump has a reasonable chance to win, the most effective use of your vote is to support Hillary Clinton. In the map below, these states are colored blue.

When to Vote Green Party, Where to Vote Democrat

If you’re a conservative living in any of these states, the most effective use of your vote is to stay home.

28 thoughts on “Voting Liberally in 2016: Map Shows Where To Vote For Jill Stein, Where To Vote For Clinton”

  1. Al Hopfmann says:

    A vote for Clinton or Stein or Trump or Weld would contribute to the continued decline of liberty, and promote the disastrous move toward unlimited government.

    1. Stephen Kent Gray says:

      I assume you’re either a Castle or McMullin supporter from your analysis of the election.

    2. Stephen Kent Gray says:

      Al, who are you supporting then? Also, Weld is the running mate of Johnson, but not himself running for President. The alt right is trying to tie all the people you listed to George Soros and the Council on Foreign Relations.

  2. Mark says:

    Thanks for the analysis. I’ve actually been wondering whether to try to make a statement with a vote for Stein, or be practical and vote Clinton. I live in South Carolina. So, I guess I go practical and maybe Clinton can actually pull off a major upset. I think it’s closer here than polls indicate.

    1. J Clifford says:

      In South Carolina, it seems pretty clear that a vote for Hillary Clinton is the best strategic choice. In a place like SC, even a reasonably strong loss by someone like Hillary Clinton can help move things away from the fringe far over on the right.

      1. Stephen Kent Gray says:

        What about Utah voters who have the Evan McMullin option as the best choice to defeat Donald Trump?

        1. J Clifford says:

          Evan McMullin is a terrible choice for liberal voters, because he promotes a right wing agenda that, while not as flamboyant as that of Donald Trump, is nonetheless unforgiving and severe.

          1. Stephen Kent Gray says:

            Isn’t this strategic voting to minimize Donald Trump’s chances at victory? Also, you told conservatives accros the country to stay home despite there being at least three Never Trump conservative parties as well as the options of voting yellow or even blue conservative have. Also, people who aren’t either liberal or conservatives are snubbed in the analysis as having no endorsed option.

          2. J Clifford says:

            No, the strategic voting is to advance liberal ideals. Mcmullin and Johnson are profoundly anti-liberal on large numbers of policies.

          3. Stephen Kent Gray says:

            Anti-liberal? Evan McMullin is a vague conservative who is supported mostly by Mormons voting for him on a sectarian basis, so that may be correct for him. But Gary Johnson is a libertarian which is American English for classical/market liberal in other dialects of English. Need I give you a refresher on the history of liberalism, more than just the liberalism=progressivism retcon you subscribe to. Social acceptance and fiscal responsibility form Gary Johnson’s platform. There’s nothing liberal about fiscal irresponsibility.

          4. Jim Cook says:

            “Retcon!” Choice.

          5. J Clifford says:

            No, libertarians are not liberals. Liberals believe in social investment, done through democratically elected governments. Libertarians believe in dismantling such systems of investments, which I view as extreme economic irresponsibility.

            Gary Johnson doesn’t even believe that we should do anything about climate change except wait around and see if maybe free markets might accidentally fix the problem somehow. Not liberal.

          6. Stephen Kent Gray says:

            One, that’s not the definition of what liberal supports as opposed to what one variant of liberals supports. Your definition is an extrapolation where social liberals speak as if all liberalism is just social liberalism despite liberalism having a much much longer history than that.

            http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-vognar/a-liberal-defends-libertarianism_b_1597159.html

            I found an above Huffington Post article on a liberal defending libertarianism. Liberalism has a history going back all the way to John Locke, medieval Humanism, Aristotle, and maybe even Lao Zi/Lao Tzu (Chinese transliteration issues).

          7. Jim Cook says:

            Liberalism as defined by economists and European macrosocial theorists is different than liberalism as a movement defined in the United States.

          8. J Clifford says:

            You found a Huffington Post article?

            Actually talk to American liberals, and I think you’ll find that most of them will laugh at the idea that a guy who wants to slash social programs, cut corporate taxes, and do nothing about climate change is a liberal.

            A philosopher’s definition relating to ancient Greeks and theorists from back in the time when rich men wore powdered wigs doesn’t have much relevance compared to that.

          9. Stephen Kent Gray says:

            Politics Part of StackExchange has several good answers on this question, especially the most up voted one with the Leonard E. Reed quote, but the whole page is good.

            http://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/353/what-is-the-difference-between-liberalism-and-libertarianism

          10. Stephen Kent Gray says:

            Another good up voted response page is this one Quora.

            https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-key-difference-between-liberal-and-libertarian

  3. Jim Cook says:

    Thanks for the map. I’d revise your map slightly for Maine, because it has an unusual allocation of its 4 electoral votes. 2 electoral votes go to the vote winner in the state overall, and it’s pretty clear that the state overall will go to Clinton. 1 vote will go to the winner in Maine’s first congressional district, which is really clearly going for Clinton. For that reason, if you live in the first congressional district of Maine, it’s safe to vote Stein. The only contested part of the race is in Maine’s 2nd congressional district; if you live there, I can see how voting for Clinton would be a reasonable choice.

  4. Stephen Kent Gray says:

    One, what about Utah? Since Evan McMullin is polling to win that state rather than Donald Trump. He’s on the ballot in eleven states and is a write-in in most other states, so voting Evan McMullin would be better than staying at home for conservatives.

    Two, Ethan Nichtern has written an article telling everyone to vote for Hillary Clinton regardless of what state they live in, what party they are, or what ideology the have.

    http://www.lionsroar.com/80080-2/

    The above article and its six options are the ones the election is summarized as having. Staying home for conservatives counts as options 2/5 depending on the state they live in. Voting for Jill Stein in a safe blue state counts as option 5. Option 1 is Hillary Clinton. Option 6 is Donald Trump. Option 5 is staying home or voting third party in a safe state, whether blue or red. Options 2-4 is staying home or voting third party in a swing state.

    Thirdly, Never Trump conservative parties
    Better For America (Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn) Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia
    Constitution Party (Darrel Castle/Scott Bradley) Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming
    American Solidarity Party (Mike Maturen/Juan Muñoz) Colorado

    It would be more strategic to tell whomever live in Utah to vote Better for America as well as conservatives in the other ten or so states where it has ballot access to do so as well. Write-in status exist, but I ignored it as most voters ignore that option, plus mispelled votes get thrown out. A rant on write-in votes and their ease with which they can get thrown out by being challenged is for another day.

    Evan McMullin was polling at 31% in a four way race in Utah which means he can actually win Utah. It also means the first state won by a third party since 1968 and the first electoral vote since a faithless elector back in 1972. I haven’t seen much polling on the ten other states, but the Utah ones get the most attention because of that.

    I live in Indiana where none of the above parties have ballot access. Well, I’m neither liberal nor conservative, so it doesn’t matter to me also.

    Glenn Beck has endorsed Darrel Castle. Various people from Utah as well as more conservative pundits have endorsed Evan McMullin.

  5. jay r. says:

    You left Rhode Island off your list!

    1. J Clifford says:

      Sure did! Rhode Islanders liberals, vote for Jill Stein! I’ll fix that omission right away, Jay. Thanks.

  6. Stephen Kent Gray says:

    According to Wikipedia polling map, New Mexico is polling as safe blue, so should be colored green on the map.

    1. J Clifford says:

      I don’t read the New Mexico polls the same way, Stephen. First of all, Hillary Clinton’s lead there in the most recent polls, the most recent one coming up to Friday, but starting eight days before is in the single digits – nothing at all as safe as Hillary Clinton’s 25% lead in New York.

      Secondly, there’s the Gary Johnson factor in New Mexico. He retains strong support in some polls in New Mexico, given his history of elected office in the state. It’s not clear how that support will hold together or break, either for Clinton or Trump, on Election Day.

      Given that unpredictability, I wouldn’t risk it if I were a New Mexico voter.

      1. Stephen Kent Gray says:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

        Wikipedia uses the criteria of whether or not the lead is bigger or smaller than the margin of error in the polls to consider a race safe or may something a little less.

        Clinton lead according to Wikipedia
        Maryland 36
        Massachusetts 32
        California 26
        Vermont 26
        New York 24
        Delaware 21
        Rhodes Island 20
        Washington 17
        Conneccticutt 15
        Illionois 15
        Maine 11
        New Jersey 11
        Minnesota 10
        Oregon 10
        Michigan 7
        New Mexico 5
        Virginia 5
        Alaska 4
        Wisconsin 4
        New Hampshire 3
        Pennsylvania 2
        Colorado 1

        According to the above math, New Mexico is safer than Virginia and Pennsylvania.

      2. Stephen Kent Gray says:

        Iowa is tied.

        Trump leads
        Wyoming 38
        West Virginia 32
        Oklahoma 30
        Nebraska 27
        Kentucky 24
        Arkansas 23
        Idaho 19
        Alabama 16
        Louisiana 15
        Missouri 14
        Indiana 11
        North Dakota 11
        South Dakota 11
        Montana 10
        Tennessee 10
        Georgia 7
        Texas 7
        Florida 4
        Nevada 4
        Ohio 4
        South Carolina 4
        North Carolina 2
        Utah 2 (over Evan McMullin not Hillary Clinton) Trump 32 McMullin 30 Clinton 24

  7. Stephen Kent Gray says:

    I Side With aka My Election Reccomendation for Everyone
    http://www.isidewith.com/

    You endorsed both Hillary Clinton andJill Stein in this split endorsement without mentioning what percentage of the issues the agree with and disagree with each other. You answer questions and get scored versus the platforms of eight presidential candidates and their parties. Presidents and parties are in spear ate tabs. While you directly can’t compare candidates and parties, but you can do it indirectly by changing your quiz answers to get as close to one hundred percent with any candidate or party to compare and contrast them. There is also a VP tab, but a lack of candidates have their answers in it to make it not as interesting as the other tabs.

    First, voters should know first and foremost who they side with mathematically, candidate and party wise. Second, strategic things like polling should comes second. Some parties are in the parties tab but don’t have their candidate results and vice verse.

    American Delta/Reform: Rocky De La Fuente/Michael Steinberg
    Better For America: Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn
    Constitution: Darrell Castle/Scott Bradley
    Democrat: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
    Green: Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka
    Libertarian: Gary Johnson/Bill Weld
    Natural Law/Socialist: Mimi Soltysik/Angela Nicole
    Republican: Donald Trump/Mike Pence

    Five parties are in the Party tab and eight candidates are in the President tab with only two in the Vice tab. Wikipedia list five factions among Democrats and four among Republicans due to only Democrats having a Progressive wing while both parties have Centrist, Conservative, Liberal, and Libertarian wings.

    Centrist wing: New Democrats
    Conservative wing: Blue Dog Coalition/Conservative Democrat
    Liberal wing: Modern Liberalism in America
    Libertarian wing: Democratic Freedom Caucus/Libertarian Democrat
    Progressive wing: Progressivisim in America

    Centrist and Liberal wings: Rockefeller Republican/Main Street Republican
    Conservative wing: Conservatism in America/Chrisitan Right/Taditionalism/Paleconservatism/Neoconservatism
    Libertarian wing: Republican Liberty Caucus/Libertarian Republican

    So by telling liberal and progressives to vote Hillary Clinton or Jill Stein, you telling lots of wings of both major parties to stay home like Comservative Blue Dog Democrats who might have voted for Hillary Clinton.

    1. Stephen Kent Gray says:

      I forgot to include

      Transhumanist: Zoltan Istvan/Unknown

      I can’t tell who his running mate is or where he has write-in status in, but I Side With has a profile for him.

  8. Stephen Kent Gray says:

    There are vote pairing sites to help Stein supporters in swings states to vote Clinton in exchange for Clinton supporters in safe states to vote Stein. That’s an example as each site is described in the Wikipedia article.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote_pairing_in_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

    #NeverTrump (Trimian Inc.) matches swing states third party supporters with blue state Hillary Clinton supporters
    Balanced Rebellion (AlternativePAC) a Hillary Clinton supporter and a Donald Trump supporter in the same state to balance each other out by voting Gary Johnson
    Trump Traders (Republicans for Hillary Clinton) matches swing states third party supporters with two safe state Hillary Clinton supporters
    Make Mine Count (mainly Steve Hull) matches swing state Gary Johnson/Jill Stein supporters with safe state Hillary Clinton supporters
    Vote Pact (Sam Husseini) a Hillary Clinton supporter and a Doanld Trump supporter in the same state to balance each other out by voting for May third party or independent candidate they agree to

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