Election 2008: The Most Popular Democratic Presidential Contenders, State by State (Updated November 2005)

Most discussions of the various contenders in the presidential election of 2008 have remained at the aggregate level of the nation, as political operatives argue about who will strike a chord among “the people.” We all know that in reality, if there is a chord of “the people,” it strikes a shimmering fifty-one notes, one for each of the presidential primaries and caucuses in the states and District of Columbia. To know how a presidential contender may fare in the electoral college contest, we need data tied to each state of the nation.

Since November 3, 2004 we’ve been offering bumper stickers, buttons and t-shirts for a variety of Democratic contenders for the presidency in 2008, and as we ship orders out, we’ve been noting to which states each contender has had orders shipped. Without fanfare, let’s look at the state-by-state popularity of presidential contenders (measured by those willing to make the commitment to a public personal endorsement) for three time periods: November 1 2004 to the first of March 2005, the second of March to August 9 2005, and August 10 to November 24 2005. Over the past year, how has support for the presidential contenders shifted? In what ways has the geographic distribution of support remained the same? Take a look for yourself:

Looking at changes over time, a few trends pop out. In the middle of this year, Hillary Clinton gained dominance across a wide swath of states, including a large number of “red” states, lending credence to the rumination of pundits that Clinton is doing her best to appeal to political moderates and independents. Barack Obama, who at first also dominated wide geographical areas, lost ground in the middle of the year but maintains his status as a strong second contender, regaining the lead not only in Democratic strongholds such as New York and Oregon, but in many Plains states as well. Obama’s popularity remains despite his rejection by political pundits online and offline as a legitimate contender for 2008. In the last portion of this year, Joseph Biden appears as a third solid contender; stickers, buttons and shirts in support of him are the most popular in five states. This may be in part due to his status as the only major figure who has openly declared his intention to run for the White House in 2008. As more individuals declare their intentions, it will be interesting to see whether the Biden surge subsides or continues.

Two more trends are worthy of note. First are the pockets of support for three politicians in their home states: Evan Bayh in Indiana, Russell Feingold in Wisconsin, and Mark Warner in Virginia. While it’s better to have some stronghold of support than to have none, these presidential aspirants will have to demonstrate that they can speak to the needs of the nation, not just the needs of their own constituents.

A second trend, consistent across all three time periods is the weak performance of General and 2004 hopeful Wesley Clark across the board. Clark has established an extensive presence on TV news shows and the Internet, and he regularly gets the most votes in the decidedly non-scientific, non-random straw polling at My DD and Daily Kos. Wes Clark’s online popularity and on-screen efforts do not seem to be translating into public displays of commitment among the broader American populace.

We’ll keep on keeping track of Democrats’ popularity across the 50 states; look for another update in another month or so.