Four days ago, I shared information about which possible Democratic contenders for the presidency in 2008 have garnered the greatest number of orders for bumper stickers, buttons or shirts endorsing them. Measuring sales of these items is useful, since it captures the strong feelings of those willing to make a public commitment to one candidate in particular.
If we look at the number of states in which a particular candidate generates the most sales, we get the following picture of who’s out in front in the early race:
Hillary Clinton: 30 states
Barack Obama: 9 states
Joseph Biden: 5 states
(no other contenders received the most sales in more than one state)
However, it occurs to me that it’s much more important at this point in the game to be one of the top attention-getters in a state than it is to be the first-place attention-getter in a state. A second-place showing in Mississippi by Barack Obama behind Hillary Clinton is important, since it indicates that these two candidates are perceived to be the alternatives there. That means that if Hillary Clinton stumbles or decides not to run, Obama stands poised to most easily gain victory in Mississippi.
With this in mind, I went back to the data and, state-by-state, looked at who achieved first, second or third place in a state when it came to bumper sticker, button, or shirt sales. Looking at those who got the gold, silver or bronze in at least one state, we get this slightly different picture of those running at the front of the pack:
Hillary Clinton: 44 states
Barack Obama: 29 states
Joseph Biden: 11 states
Barbara Boxer: 7 states
John Kerry: 4 states
John Edwards: 4 states
Russ Feingold: 3 states
Wesley Clark: 3 states
Bill Richardson: 2 states
Evan Bayh: 2 states
These results have a higher resolution, indicating that the primary race for the top spot in the hearts and minds of pro-Democrat Americans is between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who is contender for popular leadership in well more than half the states. Joseph Biden is a more distant but respectable third, and although Barbara Boxer wasn’t the most popular in any one state, she was one of the three most popular contenders in seven states, indicating room for a more serious (albeit difficult) run if she so decided.
It is interesting to me that Evan Bayh, Bill Richardson and Wesley Clark are considered “serious contenders” more than Barack Obama or Barbara Boxer. What makes them more serious given their anemic popularity? Institutional connections? Share your thoughts on this — I’d like to hear them.
I think there’s a contradiction in your comment, Sportin’ (what a great nom de keyboard!). We should take the focus off the presidency, but the office of the president is far too powerful? I agree the presidency is too powerful, but that makes it necessary for we lefties to focus on who gets to be the president, right? I mean, SAMUEL ALITO, in two words. I agree with you that Americans should also pay attention to the Congress. Maybe it doesn’t have to be an either-or proposition.
How difficult is this trend to spot?
Evan Bayhwhite male
Bill Richardsonwhite male
Wesley Clarkwhite male
Barack Obamablack male
Barbara Boxerwhite female
what’s suprising is that hillary shows up higher on the list.
Um, Vynce, that’s not a trend, man – not with Hillary Clinton in the top spot.
Your Republicans don’t even have a single woman or black male as a serious contender for President in 2008. Now THAT’S a trend.
I don’t think Vynce is a Republican, if you follow that link from his name.
But I agree with Patricia: relatively speaking, it’s great that the two most popular contenders for the presidency in 2008 are a white woman and a black man. That’d never happen with the Republicans.
Only a few years ago, the most respected person in American politics was a black male Republican.
Then Bush gave him five days to slap together a bogus presentation at the U.N. I didn’t always agree with him, but I trusted and respected Colin Powell until that day.
Thanks to Bush, his career is over.
Bill Richardson is Mexican American/Chicano/Hispanic/whatever you prefer (not white).
White and Hispanic aren’t mutually exclusive categories.
I live in NY. I used to live in IL. Here’s what I like about Russell Feingold, the governor of WI: He’s the man who will stand up and say, “Excuse me…The emperor has no clothes.” He’s the only one that voted what was in MY mind at the time, which was, how did we suddenly get from Osama to Sadam? Why are we attacking Iraq? What are all these strange things going on with the intelligence we’re getting, and why is the government putting us at risk all over the world? I was comparing Hillary Clinton’s website to Russell Feingold’s, and, much as I’d like to see a woman president, I’d REALLY like to see ANY president with common sense, integrity, conviction and the courage to stand up in front of everyone and say what he thinks is right, even if he’s the only one. Russell Feingold seems to be the only one out there with the ability to not cave in the face of raised eyebrows and rumblings–from the very people we’d like to see far away from Washington.
I am planning on voting 4 Rudy Guiliani whole heartedly. Why not going at this crazy rate?