Recent breathless speculation by pundits about which Democrats will and should run for president in 2008 is plagued by two pretty big problems. First, the only information pundits use to form their speculation comes either entirely made up out of thin air or from Federal Election Commission reports on fundraising from the wealthy elite. Neither made-up information nor information drawn from the favor of the elite tell us which Democrats are actually catching on with the people who will make the decision — voters! Second, these pundits talk about who “the American people” will support, as if the American people have a single group mind that acts in unison fashion. The practical truth is that any presidential contender must win fifty-one contests in the caucuses and primaries of the fifty states and the District of Columbia.
How are actual, committed citizens — the people who will get out and vote — feeling about the various Democratic Party contenders? And who wins favor in each of the fifty states? We’ve combed through sales data for the Election 2008 bumper stickers, buttons, and shirts we’ve sold in the spring of 2006 to answer these questions. We’ve looked at who buys items supporting which bumper stickers, and kept track of the state in which they live. Don’t worry, privacy advocates, we won’t be sharing names and addresses today. But we are happy to share aggregate data counts for each American state.
When we asked these same questions for the summer and fall of 2005, the answer was pretty simple: Hillary Clinton was the most popular presidential contender in a stunning 32 out of 50 states. Barack Obama was the most popular contender in an additional 11 out of the 50 states, leaving just seven states in which other presidential hopefuls garnered in the most orders. Such a sweeping result cheered the camp of Clintonistas in the Democratic Party.
Let’s look at the new, updated information on state-by-state popularity of presidential contenders (measured by those willing to make the commitment to the public personal endorsement implicit in a button or bumper sticker) over the months of March, April and May of 2006. Does the previous pattern still hold come the spring?
The answer is a big, fat “No!” Hillary Clinton, who was the most popular candidate in 32 states last year, held on to a lead in just 13 states’ sales. Barack Obama is not the beneficiary of Clinton’s dwindling popularity, holding on to a relatively steady 10 state lead. Rather, it seems that Americans have drifted away from Clinton’s camp and embraced a healthy variety of other, alternative contenders. Russ Feingold, the Senator from Wisconsin who cast the lone vote against the Patriot Act back in 2001, is the most popular presidential contender in eight states including the big state of California but also a strong set of midwestern states including the pivotal Iowa. Wesley Clark has captured the other “first state” of New Hampshire, along with the electoral prize of Florida and two other states. This is a significant improvement over Clark’s previous performances, when Clark’s dedicated online community failed to grab any dominion in the physical world. Al Gore is the most popular candidate in seven states including New York and New Jersey. Gore’s sales come mostly from the month of May, so if his surge continues we might expect his geographical command to expand during the summer months. Joseph Biden is riding high in Texas and Pennsylvania, but Evan Bayh and Mark Warner really only have small strongholds in their home political territories. Lastly, there are those two fellows named John. What were their last names? Gosh, I can’t remember, and neither, it seems, can the rest of America. They are the spring’s Nowhere Men.
We’ll keep on keeping track of Democrats’ popularity across the 50 states; look for an update of this particular line of data at the end of the summer.
