New York Times on Magical Thinking

4 Responses to New York Times on Magical Thinking

1. Alan says:

   1/23/2007 at 4:38 pm

   A lot of people are going to be wearing their ‘lucky hats’ in the next couple weeks. They are desparate to believe they have some control over events.

   But how is that so different from the “placebo effect,” or the rituals athletes do–ironing their workout shorts, lacing their shoes a certain way–to give themselves the “psychological edge” that can give them that extra half of one percent they need to perform well and win?

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2. Diana says:

   1/24/2007 at 12:18 am

   Jim, before you read what I’m about to say, please know that I am not a bible-thumper, I’m simply a non-denominational believer in the Father, the Son and the Holy Spirit. I also consider myself an optimist. However, it is not my optimism or luck that brought me through all of the trials and tribulations I’ve experienced. It is my deep, spiritual faith in God. There are too many miracles that have occurred in my life for one to categorize them as luck or coincidence. I encourage you to visit http://www.desmonddoss.com and order the DVD about this man’s faith and how his faith got him through one of the bloodiest battles of World War II. The true story of an American soldier, Medic Pfc. Desmond T. Doss, The Conscientious Objector, a true story of faith – not luck.

   We may have some control over the events in our lives, but it is God who is in the driver’s seat.

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3. Diana says:

   1/24/2007 at 12:32 am

   how do you add a link? i’m new at this stuff. Thanks.

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4. Jim says:

   1/24/2007 at 12:45 am

   Diana, you did just fine with the link. I don’t agree with your certain statements, but there it is. Thanks for writing.

   Actually, your statement: “there are too many miracles that have occurred in my life for one to categorize them as luck or coincidence…” is interesting to me. I don’t know what “luck” really is. But consider that the probability of any ONE really odd thing happening — like your dog puking all over your bowling ball just before you were going to go to the bowling alley, and then you don’t go, and everyone at the bowling alley gets Ebola, and you don’t — is very small. BUT 1) the number of possible freaky coincidences in just YOUR life is very large. That is, there are a lot of ways events can combine to create the appearance of shocking coincidence. 2) From a population point of view, there are a lot of people around to have experiences. This means that for you, over the course of your life, the probability of some “wow!” coincidence happening may not actually be small even though the probability of a particular “wow!” coincidence is nearly nil. And it means for the world that there is a large probability that someone, somewhere has had an amazing experience of coincidences that just “can’t” be explained as random.

   And THEN what happens? In your life, you remember the amazing coincidences, but forget the 11,024,059,031,023 moments in which they don’t occur. And when someone just by chance has one of those freaky coincidences, everybody talks about it. So what we notice and talk about are the appearance of freaky coincidences, which makes their effect magnified as everybody comes to see.

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