Obama Surges in Bumper Sticker Straw Poll of 1-27 to 2-2

Since the Election Day debacle of 2004, we’ve kept track of committed support for various presidential contenders, indicated by sales of Election 2008 bumper stickers, magnets, campaign buttons, t-shirts and yard signs. While polls measure fickle opinions, our measure tracks the stronger commitment marked by the laying down of cash to promote a candidate in public. The more strongly committed are more likely to caucus and to vote. The following is the percent share of sales of our Election 2008 gear in the past week of January 27 to February 2, 2008:

Barack Obama 2008: 78.1%
Hillary Clinton 2008: 17.6%
John Edwards 2008: 2.0%
Mike Gravel 2008: less than 1%
Others: 1.7%

That’s a blowout for Barack Obama. In the context of time, it’s a surge. Look at this past week’s results compared to those of all the weeks before, reaching right back to January 2007:

A long year it’s been, and Barack Obama is right back to the monumental place in our straw poll that he took a year ago. The difference is that in 22 states tomorrow containing a majority of the American population, preferences for candidates are going to become fixed as votes.