Yesterday, John Edwards announced that he would not accept a Vice Presidential spot on any 2008 ticket, closing a door on that possibility. But what other possibilities are out there? Of course, whoever is nominated as the presidential candidate will have his or her choice in a running mate, at least among those who are willing to serve. But part of that choice will be determined by the perceived popularity of a running mate, the effectiveness of a vice presidential pick in appealing to voters. So who would voters prefer be picked for vice presidential?
We’re fortunate in that we can provide at least one sort of answer to that question. We’ve been selling bumper stickers and buttons featuring various combinations of presidential and vice presidential candidates for some time now, and people have been willing to lay down cash to promote their ideal president/vice president ticket for 2008. Let’s take a quick look at the choices people have made in their purchases between February’s Super Tuesday primary voting day and today. We offer a lot of choices, but for purposes of clarity we’ll just focus on those president-vice president combinations that account for at least 1% of all combinations in sales volume.
Vice Presidential Choices for those Who Put Hillary Clinton at the Top of the Ticket:
Barack Obama: 87.5%
Ted Strickland: 5.2%
Dennis Kucinich: 3.1%
Nancy Pelosi: 2.6%
Bill Richardson: 1.1%
Vice Presidential Choices for those Who Put Barack Obama at the Top of the Ticket:
Hillary Clinton: 34.0%
Bill Richardson: 31.8%
John Edwards: 24.1%
Nancy Pelosi: 4.3%
Russ Feingold: 3.2%
Al Gore: 1.1%
And then, yes, there are still Vice Presidential Choices for those Who Put Al Gore at the Top of the Ticket: a surprising 7.1% of all presidential ticket sales since Super Tuesday. But each and every Vice Presidential pick among those choosing Al Gore as their (ever diminishingly, fairy tale like) hopeful presidential candidate has the name of Barack Obama. 100%.
Another interesting bit to nibble on is that of our running-mates sales, 62.3% put Clinton on the top as the presidential candidate, with just 30.6% naming Barack Obama as the presidential member of the ticket (and 7.1% still choosing Al Gore, apparently hoping that he will use his super powers to win in a brokered convention). This distribution runs starkly counter to the general trend we’ve observed since Super Tuesday, in which items in support of Barack Obama’s presidential bid account for somewhere between three-quarters and nine-tenths of all our Election 2008 sales. Put together, these pieces of information imply that supporters of Hillary Clinton are more inclined to think of her as president in the context of a team of two individuals running on a ticket (most often, the Clinton-Obama ticket). Supporters of Barack Obama, however, are not as inclined to picture him as part of a ticket and are more interested in promoting Obama himself, alone, without a visualized running mate. Why? I don’t know, because we don’t distribute surveys when we make sales. Chew on that pattern and make of it what you will.
I suspect that to Rodham Clinton supporters, there is an obvious choice for VP, and to Obama supporters there is no obvious choice. After all, Obama/Rodham Clinton seems unlikely for a number of reasons — will she want to sit second fiddle? Does she actually help him get elected? are her negatives too high? had her campaign been too harsh? On the other hand, Obama certainly could call this race worthwhile and a step in the right direction if he makes it to VP, and he’s clearly young enough to run again in 2016, so he has little reason not to take the VP.candidacy if offered.
But, if HRC isn’t his choice for VP, who is? Bill Richardson left a lot of people uninspired, but helps in some places where BHO is otherwise weak. Edwards is of course an option, and Al Gore has done the job before (nevermind that he says he doesn’t want to go back to the old home). So there are no clear favorites for BHO’s VP. without a clear favorite, why buy a bumper sticker that might be half meaningless when you can buy one that you know you believe 100%?
I think if BHO announced his running mate pick, you’d see people buy them. but as I recall, some of the people being discussed for him aren’t even on your list.