Goodness me! Remember just a few months ago when we were debating how soon it would be before the price of a barrel of oil would reach the shocking price of 90 dollars per barrel?
Jim (sorry to put salt on the wound, Jim) predicted that 90 dollars per barrel would come in June 2008. Vynce got it about right when he said 90 dollars a barrel would come soon, and 100 dollars per barrel would come before February 2008.
Well, yesterday the price of crude oil reached $118.05 per barrel.
I’m not going to ask people to predict when the price of oil will reach $120 or $125 dollars per barrel. That could come today, if the worth of the American dollar keeps on with its plunge.
Of course, something might happen so that the price of oil never reaches $120 per barrel – ever.
My question to you is this: What do you predict the price of oil will be by the end of the week?
Me, I’m predicting $121.50.
You realize, of course that market speculators are driving the prices of oil and commodities (FOOD) up by “playing the market,” which means the prices are artificially high because these “geniuses” want to make money.
Capitalism is ruining the world.
I don’t make good predictions short term, but I’m expecting the combination of dollar crunch & oil squeeze to bring $150/barrel at some point during the summer vacation season (possibly as early as memorial day, definitely by labor day).
Elections will help shape the expectations (and thus prices) heading into winter, despite the fact that the new terms won’t begin until winter is well under way. If McCain wins, I expect full-blown recession complete with large layoffs & high prices for gas & food (whether or not Tom is right about why — and I don’t think he’s completely wrong, but i also don’t think any explanation of economics that has fewer than 5 distinct vectors is worth much).
My guess is that it will be at $125.00 per barrel. It’s at something like $121 right now.