Are Chinese Outbidding Barack Obama on Emissions Reductions?

Xinhua is reporting that the Chinese government is following up Barack Obama’s pledge to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent of 2005 levels by the year 2020. The Chinese offer: To reduce “carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 percent to 45 percent compared with the level of 2005″.

40 to 45 percent? That’s a lot more than 17 percent. So, has China outbid President Obama, presenting an emissions pledge that’s more than twice what Obama could muster?

Maybe, but maybe not. Read that promise closely, and you’ll see that there’s a clause of the Chinese pledge that isn’t there in Obama’s pledge: “per unit of GDP”. If the Chinese GDP (Gross Domestic Product) remains near 2005 levels, keeping the pledge of 40 to 45 percent emissions reduction per GDP will be a remarkable achievement that outdoes the American work by far. If, however, the Chinese economy continues to expand in terms of GDP, then the pledge could even constitute a mere slowdown in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

Given that we can’t predict the economic future of China, it’s impossible to say which model will end up being closer to reality. I’m betting, however, that the Chinese government, in making this announcement, is betting on continued significant economic growth over the next 11 years.