Was the 2010 Election a referendum on health care reform?
You’d think so from reading all the Republican fundraising letters and e-mails I’ve been getting. They howl about “Obamacare” (a fictional name) and speak of health care reform as a fascist/socialist/totalitarian/secular/Pelosibot disaster. It’s clear that in the minds of Republican fundraisers, the 2010 election season was about rejecting the health care reform that passed earlier in the year. But is that what was in the minds of the voters?
Let’s fact check this claim. If it’s true that voters came out to protest the passage of the health care reform bill, then surely they’d reject congressmen and congresswomen who voted for health care reform, and they’d cast their ballots for congressmen and congresswomen who voted against health care reform.
Is that what we see? Let’s follow the fate of the 34 Democrats who voted against the health care bill. If this election is a referendum on the health care bill, they should do pretty well. As late election results trickle in, I’ll continue to update the results. Blanks indicate races that are still too close to call.
Democrats who voted NO, AGAINST passage of the Health Care Reform Bill
John Adler of New Jersey — LOST
Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania — RE-ELECTED
Michael Arcuri of New York — LOST
John Barrow of Georgia — RE-ELECTED
Marion Berry of Arkansas — RETIRING
Dan Boren of Oklahoma — RE-ELECTED
Rick Boucher of Virginia — LOST
Bobby Bright of Alabama — LOST
Ben Chandler of Kentucky –
Travis Childers of Mississippi — LOST
Artur Davis of Alabama — RETIRING
Lincoln Davis of Tennessee — LOST
Chet Edwards of Texas — LOST
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin of South Dakota –
Tim Holden of Pennsylvania — RE-ELECTED
Larry Kissell of North Carolina — RE-ELECTED
Frank Kratovil of Maryland — LOST
Dan Lipinski of Illinois — RE-ELECTED
Steve Lynch of Massachusetts — RE-ELECTED
Jim Marshall of Georgia — LOST
Jim Matheson of Utah — RE-ELECTED
Mike McIntyre of North Carolina — RE-ELECTED
Mike McMahon of New York — LOST
Charlie Melancon of Louisiana — RETIRING
Walt Minnick of Idaho — LOST
Glenn Nye of Virginia — LOST
Collin Peterson of Minnesota — RE-ELECTED
Mike Ross of Arkansas — RE-ELECTED
Heath Shuler of North Carolina — RE-ELECTED
Ike Skelton of Missouri — LOST
Zack Space of Ohio — LOST
John Tanner of Tennessee — RETIRING
Gene Taylor of Mississippi — LOST
Harry Teague of New Mexico — LOST
The rate of re-election for this group of health care reform opponents is actually LOWER than the rate of re-election of those Democrats who voted for health care reform. Overall, 1 out of 4 Democratic seats were lost to Republicans. But MORE than 1 out of 4 Democrats who voted against health care reform lost their races.
This election was clearly NOT a referendum on health care reform.
Lincoln Davis gone! What a relief!
Yeah, but replaced with WHAT? (a neocon nutjob? a tea partyer? a theocrat?)
In the case of my district, Blue Dog Mike Arcuri was replaced with a relatively moderate Republican who has a lot of positions I don’t like. Richard Hanna supported religious freedom on the “Manhattan Mosque” issue, UNTIL Mike Arcuri campaigned to the right of him, declaring that there ought to be Islam-free zones in America. Arcuri forced the Republican to the right on that issue!
Now, I can focus my energies on working to support efforts to pick a progressive Democrat to run against Hanna in 2012. I am extremely happy that the election went this way – it’s a wakeup to the Democratic Party that their formula of sliding to the right does not work. Unless they’re complete idiots, they’ve got to see that the strategy of recruiting Blue Dogs, and focusing on them, is unsustainable for their party-building efforts.
The point missed here is that the Dems voting against the bill were from vulnerable districts. The vote the “blue dogs” were being punished for was for Speaker Pelosi. I live in Illinois 8th, were a usual “blue dog” voted for Health Care Reform, and the outcome is descibed not as a mere upset, but as a “stunner”.
Kevin, the point you’re missing is that practically ALL Democrats voted to bring Nancy Pelosi into the Speaker’s position, so you can’t claim that as a point of differentiation.
The Blue Dogs voted the most like Republicans, so if their districts were really inclined to go for Republican politics, their many right wing votes and maneuvers should have protected them. That’s not how it went down.
Take a look at the scatter plot of all Democratic incumbents:
http://irregulartimes.com/index.php/archives/2010/11/04/scatter-plot-shows-liberal-democrats-did-better-than-blue-dogs/
The more liberal the voting record from the last two years, the more likely a Democrat was to have performed very well in the elections.
Republicans won mostly in districts where the Democratic incumbents had turned off voters from their own political party. The issue isn’t just care reform either, but bills like climate change and funding of military pork.
Citing one district, when hundreds were in the running, isn’t a good argument against the pattern shown in this article. It’s like saying, because there’s one big snowstorm, that global warming must not be happening.
Want the statistics on this difference? I’ll come out with a follow-up article including those on this in just a bit…
… and here they are: http://irregulartimes.com/index.php/archives/2010/11/08/house-democrats-rewarded-for-health-care-bill-in-election-2010/