I’ve been following ice trends in the Arctic Ocean for a while now, watching it get lower in volume and lower in extent, noting that both the extent and volume of ice there has been below normal for a long, long time now.
But wait, you may be saying: what about Greenland? What about the Antarctic? Well, the truth is that I’ve been looking for data to describe the entirety of the ice pattern in these latter regions across time and just hadn’t found such data.
Now, there is data for Antarctic sea ice actually showing a rise in the extent of sea ice compared to the long-term average, but the problem with this data is that it isn’t a complete measure of ice for the Antarctic. Antarctic sea ice is part of a system of ice that flows off of the Antarctic land mass; Arctic sea ice in contrast is not dependent upon land ice for its formation. An increase in Antarctic sea ice could happen for a lot of reasons, including global cooling, yes, but also including the Antarctic continent sloughing off ice at an an increasing rate or other kinds of continent-sea interactions.
So really, what this boils down to is that what I was looking for was a measure of the trend in how much overall Antarctic sea ice has been there. If I could find any kind of trend in Greenland’s ice to boot, that would also be great. But until today, I couldn’t find either. Then I happened upon a paper written by Isabella Velicogna, Assistant Professor of Earth System Science at UC-Irvine: “Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE,” Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009).
“Revealed by GRACE” doesn’t have anything to do with religion. GRACE is an acronym that refers to the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment, a satellite collecting data on ice masses in both Greenland and Antarctica. The abstract very nearly speaks for itself:
We use monthly measurements of time-variable gravity from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravity mission to determine the ice mass-loss for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets during the period between April 2002 and February 2009. We find that during this time period the mass loss of the ice sheets is not a constant, but accelerating with time, i.e., that the GRACE observations are better represented by a quadratic trend than by a linear one, implying that the ice sheets contribution to sea level becomes larger with time. In Greenland, the mass loss increased from 137 Gt/yr in 2002–2003 to 286 Gt/yr in 2007–2009, i.e., an acceleration of 30 ± 11 Gt/yr2 in 2002–2009. In Antarctica the mass loss increased from 104 Gt/yr in 2002–2006 to 246 Gt/yr in 2006–2009, i.e., an acceleration of 26 ± 14 Gt/yr2 in
2002–2009. The observed acceleration in ice sheet mass loss helps reconcile GRACE ice mass estimates obtained for different time periods.
A “Gt” is a gigaton, which is equal to one billion metric tons, which you would not want to find yourself stuck under. From 2007 to 2009, Greenland and Antarctica not only lost ice mass, but lost it at an accelerating rate.
Velicogna’s figures show both the raw data for the mass of ice in Greenland and Antarctica (blue) and the accelerating trend of ice loss (green):

